Studies in Fuzziness and Soft Computing: New Directions

Fulcher, John

Humans have always been hopeless at predicting the future…most people now generally agree that the margin of viability in prophecy appears to be 1 ten years. Even sophisticated research endeavours in this arena tend to go 2 off the rails after a decade or so. The computer industry has been particularly prone to bold (and often way off the mark) predictions, for example: ‘I think there is a world market for maybe five computers’ Thomas J. Watson, IBM Chairman (1943), ‘I have traveled the length and breadth of this country and talked with the best people, and I can assure you that data processing is a fad that won’t last out the year’ Prentice Hall Editor (1957), ‘There is no reason why anyone would want a computer in their home’ Ken Olsen, founder of DEC (1977) and ‘640K ought to be enough for anybody’ Bill Gates, CEO Microsoft (1981). 3 The field of Artificial Intelligence – right from its inception – has been particularly plagued by ‘bold prediction syndrome’, and often by leading practitioners who should know better. AI has received a lot of bad press 4 over the decades, and a lot of it deservedly so. How often have we groaned in despair at the latest ‘by the year-20xx, we will all have…(insert your own particular ‘hobby horse’ here – e. g.

Details

Published by: Springer

Publication Date: 2004-05-05

Format: Hardcover

ISBN-13: 9783540211532

DOI: 10.1007/978-3-540-39972-8

Dimensions: 235cm x155cm

Pages: 325