{"product_id":"9783319879376","title":"International Series in Operations Research \u0026 Management Science: The Science and Art of Structuring Judgement","description":"\u003ch1\u003eInternational Series in Operations Research \u0026amp; Management Science: The Science and Art of Structuring Judgement\u003c\/h1\u003e \u003ch2\u003eDias, Luis C.; Morton, Alec; Quigley, John\u003c\/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThis book is about elicitation: the \u003ci\u003efacilitation of the quantitative expression of subjective judgement\u003c\/i\u003e about matters of fact, interacting with subject experts, or about matters of value, interacting with decision makers or stakeholders. It offers an integrated presentation of procedures and processes that allow analysts and experts to think clearly about numbers, particularly the inputs for decision support systems and models. This presentation encompasses research originating in the communities of structured probability elicitation\/calibration and multi-criteria decision analysis, often unaware of each other’s developments.\u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eChapters 2 through 9 focus on processes to elicit uncertainty from experts, including the Classical Method for aggregating judgements from multiple experts concerning probability distributions; the issue of validation in the Classical Method; the Sheffield elicitation framework; the IDEA protocol; approaches following the Bayesian perspective; themain elements of structured expert processes for dependence elicitation; and how mathematical methods can incorporate correlations between experts.\u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eChapters 10 through 14 focus on processes to elicit preferences from stakeholders or decision makers, including two chapters on problems under uncertainty (utility functions), and three chapters that address elicitation of preferences independently of, or in absence of, any uncertainty elicitation (value functions and ELECTRE).  Two chapters then focus on cross-cutting issues for elicitation of uncertainties and elicitation of preferences: biases and selection of experts.\u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eFinally, the last group of chapters illustrates how some of the presented approaches are applied in practice, including a food security case in the UK; expert elicitation in health care decision making; an expert judgement based method to elicit nuclear threat risks in US ports; risk assessment in a pulp and paper manufacturer in the Nordic countries; and elicitation of preferences for crop planning in a Greek region.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003ch3\u003eDetails\u003c\/h3\u003e \u003cp\u003ePublished by: Springer\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePublication Date: 2018-05-27\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFormat: Paperback\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eISBN-13: 9783319879376\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDOI: 10.1007\/978-3-319-65052-4\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDimensions: 235cm x155cm\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePages: 542\u003c\/p\u003e ","brand":"Springer International Publishing","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":45378488795276,"sku":"9783319879376","price":296.99,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0710\/9545\/1788\/files\/9783319879376.jpg?v=1775004971","url":"https:\/\/fh90cf-fv.myshopify.com\/products\/9783319879376","provider":"Late Knight Books and Services, LLC","version":"1.0","type":"link"}