{"product_id":"9780471914792","title":"Judgment and Choice The Psychology of Decision","description":"\u003ch1\u003eJudgment and Choice\u003c\/h1\u003e\u003ch2\u003eThe Psychology of Decision\u003c\/h2\u003e\u003ch3\u003eRobin M. Hogarth\u003c\/h3\u003e\u003cdiv\u003e\u003cb\u003eBusiness \u0026amp; Economics \/ Management Science\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/div\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cdiv\u003eDespite the many formal methods available most decisions are made intuitively?that is, without apparent reasoning and almost instinctively. This revised and updated edition emphasizes the unstructured and natural way people make judgements and exercise choice, which accounts for almost all real decision-making activity, but argues that intuition can be both studied and educated. The book is quite different from standard texts on decision-making methodology and standard decisions theory in that it is written from the point of view of a psychologist who recognizes that almost all decisions are based on anticipations people make about the future (predictive judgements) which lead to choices or decisions largely based on intuition. Written in a clear and non-technical way it deals with the basis of intuitive judgement, demonstrates the limitations on the human ability to make judgements, and suggests the means of overcoming potential shortcomings. At the same time it stresses the importance of learning the limits to one?s judgmental a bility. The purpose of this book is to help people make better decisions. In a world of increasing uncertainty and complexity Judgement and Choice will be of great value to all decision makers?in commerce, government service, medicine or any other professional activity. Contents Preface; \u003col\u003e \u003cli\u003eThe nature of human judgement;\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eRandomness and the probabilistic environment;\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eCombining information for prediction;\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eCombining information for evaluation and choice;\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eChoice under uncertainty;\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eOn learning relations;\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eThe role of memory in judgement;\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eCreativity, imagination, and choice;\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eProblem structuring and decision aids;\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eHuman judgement?an overview; Appendices; Index\u003c\/li\u003e \u003c\/ol\u003e Reviews of the First Edition ??I believe that Professor Hogarth?s book will prove to be of historical importance in the development of the field of human judgement.? R.M. Corbin, Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 1. 1982. ??Hogarth has given us a clear, integrated treatment of the major issues in the field and has managed to convey both the excitement of the work itself and the direct practical implications of the findings.? Terry Connolly, ASQ, June 1982.\u003c\/div\u003e\u003cdiv\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eRobin M. Hogarth\u003c\/b\u003e is the author of \u003ci\u003eJudgment and Choice: The Psychology of Decision\u003c\/i\u003e, 2nd Edition, published by Wiley.\u003c\/p\u003e\n\u003c\/div\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003ctable\u003e\n\u003ctr\u003e\n\u003ctd\u003ePublication Date: \u003c\/td\u003e\n\u003ctd\u003e15 January 1991\u003c\/td\u003e\n\u003c\/tr\u003e\n\u003ctr\u003e\n\u003ctd\u003ePublisher: \u003c\/td\u003e\n\u003ctd\u003eWiley\u003c\/td\u003e\n\u003c\/tr\u003e\n\u003ctr\u003e\n\u003ctd\u003eImprint: \u003c\/td\u003e\n\u003ctd\u003eWiley\u003c\/td\u003e\n\u003c\/tr\u003e\n\u003ctr\u003e\n\u003ctd\u003eISBN-13: \u003c\/td\u003e\n\u003ctd\u003e9780471914792\u003c\/td\u003e\n\u003c\/tr\u003e\n\u003ctr\u003e\n\u003ctd\u003eFormat: \u003c\/td\u003e\n\u003ctd\u003eHardback\u003c\/td\u003e\n\u003c\/tr\u003e\n\u003ctr\u003e\n\u003ctd\u003ePage Count: \u003c\/td\u003e\n\u003ctd\u003e320\u003c\/td\u003e\n\u003c\/tr\u003e\n\u003ctr\u003e\n\u003ctd\u003eWeight (oz): \u003c\/td\u003e\n\u003ctd\u003e22.0\u003c\/td\u003e\n\u003c\/tr\u003e\n\u003c\/table\u003e","brand":"Wiley","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":44314683080844,"sku":"9780471914792","price":376.16,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0710\/9545\/1788\/files\/9780471914792_34d0b02f-15d5-4f21-b1c3-449edae5d8dd.jpg?v=1780145035","url":"https:\/\/fh90cf-fv.myshopify.com\/products\/9780471914792","provider":"Late Knight Books and Services, LLC","version":"1.0","type":"link"}